| Summary |
Yen-Ting Chen, 2008.06
Department of Transportation Technology and Management National Chiao Tung University
International tramp bulk marine market is a perfectly competitive market. The market price depends on the equilibrium of supply and demand of the market. It makes the enterprise to confront enormous operation risk and uncertainty. Baltic Dry Index (BDI) provides a channel for hedge, which according to the important degrees and weight of different ship size and route. It is a comprehensive index. We could see the variation of bulk marine market condition by BDI.
Past research use ARIMA model or gray theory model to forecast the tendency of BDI. We propose a fuzzy time series model to forecast the time-variant BDI. We discuss the fuzziness and the fuzzy relation of history data. Finally, we construct two short-term models. We hope it could be a different forecast method from past research.
There are many attributions could affect accuracy in fuzzy time series model: define the universe of discourse, partition interval, define fuzzy sets, fuzzify data, establish fuzzy logical relationship and defuzzify forecast data. We combine the reasonable attributions from reference and build one-variable model and Type-2 model. We find the accuracy and robustness are improved. The method is worth further study. |
