Institute of Transportation, MOTC

Student : Zi-Yang Yen, 2006.06
Institute of Traffic and Transportation National Chiao Tung University

　　Land use change model been an important and Complicated issue in urban research. If we can grasp the changes and development of land uses in planning process, lt will provide much assistance in drawing up urban Plan. The past research about land use change model mainly paid much attention on a static state, few on land use change situations through time. Although the cellular automata model performs dynamic feature, the model fails to display the changeable results which describe the behaviors among agents. On account of above reasons, this research aims at developing a dynamic land use change model, which can simulate the interactions among agents and forecast the land use changes along metro line.

　　The simulation model in this research was developed based on multi-agent system and the influence factors of land use change are explored from literature review. The land use change rule was formulated as multinomial logit model. The geography information system was applied to interpret land use and to organize data in terms of grid pattern. Finally, the NetLogo software was used as platform to simulate the land use change of Xindian Line in Taipei County.

　　In the case study, the accuracy rate of forecasted land use is 90%. The simulated results found that commercial use spreads along the metro line. According to the forecast results, the land use change is not significant without any policy. This research further performed policy analyses, which include increasing floor-area ratio along metro route, improving walking environment and introducing the Circular Line of metro system. The policy analyses reached the following conclusions:(1)the effect of increasing floor-area ratio decreases with the increasing ratio;(2)improving walking environment expands the commercial areas in nearby metro stations but the policy effect is the worst; and,(3)the Circular Line will increase the land use value along the metro line, form the commercial land uses into belt-shaped distribution and perform the strongest policy effect.