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Transportation Dissertation

Title A Study on Project Prediction Using Simplified CPM/PERT Simulation Model
Year 2006
Summary

Tzu-Chang Chiu, 2006.06

Institute of Transportation Technology and Management
National Chiao Tung University

   It is quite important to finish a project or a construction in the deadline for the project managements. Bar chart and classic critical path method (CPM) are both deterministic tools which easy to apply to the project scheduling. However, lack of efficiency to compute the critical path of larger scale project limit theirs effectiveness.
  Construction simulation by computer can provide promptly and accurately schedule information, such as critical path and the total project time. Lu and AbouRizk (2000) presented a simplified CPM/PERT Simulation Model, which has been done to overcome the limitations and enhance the computing efficiency of classic CPM/PERT model. This simplified model incorporates a simplified critical path identification method by ritical Index, CI,?and supplies more comprehensive activities information then classic CPM/PERT model. This new solution to CPM network, presented by Lu and AbouRizk (2000), can provide project management with a convenient tool to assess alternative scenarios based on computer simulation and risk analysis.
  In this research, the author used the simplified CPM/PERT simulation model (Lu and AbouRizk, 2000) to put into a practical case. It validates the simplified model and compares it to classic CPM/PERT analysis. The result shows that, in the basic scenario, the simplified model can provide more completed critical path information than classic model. Additionally, in the crashing scenario, the simplified model can judge 6 different critical path conditions. It can enhance CPM/PERT model analysis and reinforce the accuracy and efficiency on project prediction.

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