Institute of Transportation, MOTC

Chao-Chung Kang, 2000.12
Institute of Traffic and Transportation, National Chiao Tung University

　　Risk measurement is a necessary step for decision-maker to evaluate uncertain factors of BOT projects in order to reduce cost in loss. Also, it can help decision-makers to clarify risk events by using risk evaluation, when the BOT concession company and Government sectors are made BOT concession contract negotiation. In a word, the decision-makers can find the negotiation items by using risk evaluation.

　　This study presents an analysis technique and risk analysis framework to satisfy the purpose of the decision-makers. The propose risk analysis technique consists two elements, which one is that there are no made negotiation among the decision-makers (or negotiators) and the other is that there are made negotiation among the negotiators. The former is a utility-independence case and the latter is a utility-dependence case. A multi-attribute utility model and dynamic multi-objection programming model for these two cases. The multi-attribute utility model which is based on the utility, risk, and MAU theories, and the dynamic-multi-objection programming model which is based on the preference decomposition and linear in utility theories on order to clarify the risk events, non-risk events, main risk events, and secondary risk events. In addition, the iterative algorithm has proposed herein which it was used to obtain convergent solution of dynamic-multi-objection programming model; As well as, a numerical example herein is made to test the proposes model. Results show that the proposed model herein can satisfy the decision-makers’ objections to find risk events, main risk events, and secondary events.

　　The numerical example releases some findings. First the expected utility value can be used to determine risk or non-risk events. Secondary, the dynamic multi-objective programming model can be used to demonstrate the discussion behavior. Third, the number of discussion was affected by the interactive utility value (IUV value). Forth, the dynamic-multi-objection-programming model will reduce to additive utility model when the dynamic-multi-objection-programming model satisfies the converged condition in first discussion model.

　　This study show that the proposed model and risk analysis framework can apply to measure risk of BOT concession contract, furthermore, they can show risk preference behavior of the negotiators.