Institute of Transportation, MOTC

Yun-Chueh Hung, 2006.07

Feng Chia University - Graduate Institute of Traffic and Transportation Engineering and Management

 　　The information between the levels of the tradition supply chain changed, it made a big variation. When the customer's demands made variations and transported from lower to upper of supply chain, the information changed very much and the manufacturers would make face the great demand, this phenomenon will be called Bullwhip Effect. Bullwhip effect increased the stock cost and made customer's service level reduce. However, under the influence of bullwhip effect, each member made a large number of stocks to solve the problem about the demand uncertainly between supply chain. But a large number of stocks would cause serious stock cost and following additional cost. In recent years, the enterprises cooperated with other enterprises in order to solve this problem and shared its risk. This research intended to focus on Vender Managed Inventory (VMI), one important issue of strategic partnership relation.
　　The study utilized the data of bicycles exporting to the North American Free Trade Agreement. Using the experimental data from January of 1998 to December of 2004 to establish the forecast model, and made the data from January of 2005 to December of 2005 to verify the feasibility about the model by ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Then, we utilized this model producing the quantities of customers’ demand, and to compare the bullwhip effect and cost on VMI and traditional supply chain system.