Institute of Transportation, MOTC

Student : Mei-Ting Wang, 2006.07
Instiute of Traffic and Transportation National Chiao Tung University

　　Flight safety in airspace is closely related to the potential aircraft conflicts. If the flight trajectory can be predicted in advance, possible future flight positions will be known, which could be the basis of evaluation of flight conflicts. With the conflict analysis, corresponding measures may be taken in the early stage to prevent conflicts. Thus, the flight safety in Taipei Terminal Control Area is ensured. The results could also be the references for adjusting the structure of terminal control area and for evaluating the workload of the controllers.

　　This thesis, using flight radar data and flight strips, analyzes horizontal and vertical flight trajectories and ground speed of aircrafts following FBI Departure Applying the correlation between the accumulated horizontal distance of the flights and the ground speed as wall as the motion formula, the prediction of next accumulated horizontal distance is obtained. The horizontal coordinates can be predicted through
the predicted accumulated horizontal distance and the planned flying direction. The height is forecasted from the predicted accumulated distance and the climb rate.
Because controllers intervene in the arrival flights, the arrival flight trajectory cannot be successfully analyzed and predicted. Therefore, the thesis assumes that
the arrival flights follow the arrival route with BADA data for the conflict analysis. The result confirms that without the controllers’ intervention, conflicts can occur between take-off flights and arrival flights in the present route design.