| Summary |
Tzu-Hsin Chu, 2008.06
Institute of Traffic and Transportation National Chiao Tung University
The main purpose of this research is to explore the factors that affect the size of capsize and Panamax bulk carriers and total tonnage（dead weight tonnage） of world fleet, and to predict the development trend. The study begins with collection of possible influential factors of ships size and total tonnage, based on literature reviews and demand-supply theory of shipping markets, and then use relation analysis and multi-regression analysis to establish regression models of average size of newbuilt Capsize, Panamax, and total tonnage of both types of ships, respectively, to conclude the main influential factors. Single regression analysis is also used to examine the relations between average size of newbuilt ships. Finally, ARIMA is used to predict the trends of average tonnages of newbuilt of the two types of carriers between 2008 and 2010 and those of total tonnage of world fleet.
The results indicate that the main factors of the size of capsize and Panamax are the trading amount of shipping cargo types and the world trade amount. Beside these factors, world price index, baltic dry index and cargo prices, etc. also affect total tonnage of world fleet. There is a close relation between average size of newbuilt ships and total tonnage of world fleet, manifesting in their mutual effects. Finally, according to the prediction by ARIMA, newbuilt Capsize carriers between 2008 and 2010 will slightly decrease in average tonnage; newbuilt Panamax carriers will continuously increase in average tonnage; the total tonnage of world fleet of Capsize and Panamax will both increase, and steadily grow. As a whole, the average tonnage of future newbuilt bulk carriers and the total tonnage of world fleet will continue to grow up in the next few years.
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