| Summary |
Chin-Hua Yang, 2008.06
Department of Transportation Technology and Management National Chiao Tung University
The container transportation began in 1960s. After several decades，it has become a mature industry and been competing violently. In recent years，China becomes one of the most important economies in Pacific-Asia area, but only few papers discussed China’s maritime freight rate in terms of China economic development. The growth of China maritime industry brings many changes for marine market. With establishment of European Union，and members of EU is increasing，the economic development of these members must have obvious impact on liner marine freight rate. Therefore it can expect the economic development and some macro variables of EU members have influence on the trend of fluctuation about liner marine freight rate.
Regression model and time series model were the main tools in most of previous researches about marine freight rate prediction. They needed large amount of data for testing the probability distribution and curve fitting. In historical data perspective， marine freight rate increases rapidly only about ten-year period. Therefore, collecting data basic freight、BAF、CAF、PSS of two liner shipping company COSCO and HANJIN about the route from Far East to Europe. And we will also use Gray Theory to make the analysis and prediction, because it does not need large amount of data to formulate the model. We also try ARIMA time series, and compare the results.
Expecting to provide references about decision-making for liner shipping company and shippers. |
