| Summary |
Li-Hung Yang, 2006.07
Submitted to Department of Transportation Technology and Management College of Management
National Chiao Tung University
Air transport industry in Asia grows rapidly in the past decade. In Taiwan, the number of outbound travelers in 2005 is almost 1.5 times more than that in 1996, with an average of 4.13% growth rate. GDP in 2005 is 1.45 times more than 1996, and indicates that Taiwan people have greater ability to oversea travel, and emphasize more on the quality of life. From past data about travel and tourism, increase in real income doesn’t response immediately to travel demand, and those exists time lag. After SARS in 2003 or opening relative visit on the mainland in 1988, outbound travel demand has huge fluctuations, and the fluctuations in demand even lasted in the following few years. Past studies in tourists’ discrete travel choice model seldom concern variables affecting individual decision in dynamic concept.
This study aims to investigate the effect of time factor on international air travel tourism demand. This study constructs an intertemporal travel choice model, in which utility functions are composed of two main factors: individuals’ ability to travel, including money and time, and external environment factor. To explore the impact of past travel experiment and future expected travel on current choice, this study divides time preference into those for past travel and for future travel, and using time preference to convert utility in each period into current period. In utility function, travel budget is affected by travel decision made in pervious period, and external environment factor and time constraint are also different in each period. This study assumes individual aims on maximizing the aggregated utility, with various discounts on different periods subject to budget and time constraints. Furthermore, the optimal timing for travel behavior in future period is obtained by recursive method. In parameter calibration, this study design questionnaire and obtains the data about individual character and preference in outbound travel. The study further uses the real number of outbound travelers and income data in Taiwan in past decade to estimate external environment factor. And take some international tour route for example to illustrate the application of the model. Furthermore, the study analyze the differences on outbound travel choice probability among different income individuals, and take the example of SARS in 2003, to show the optimal timing for outbound travel due to external environmental factor.
The study results show that travel budget, off-days, travel expenditure and travel duration in utility functions significantly affect individual travel demand. With regard to time preference, the effect of excepted travel in future on the current travel decision is smaller than that of past travel experience. The results also show the past travel experiments will influence the current travel decision up to four years; however, for future excepted travel behavior, it is merely two years. |
