Institute of Transportation, MOTC

Ying-Huei Wang，2007.08
Feng Chia University

　　After Taiwan high speed rail joins the transportation market at the west area of Taiwan in 2007, the original medium and long distance transportation market must be impacted and may cause the phenomenon of mode shift and the induced demand. In this study, we investigated the mode choice of travelers proceeding medium and long distance transportation, and we also analyzed the changes of the induced demand by traveler’s trip time. The data base used to evaluate the market share before and after the high speed rail is open to vehicular traffic were collected from the passengers or drivers of the air transportation, conventional rail, scheduled bus on national freeway and voluntarily driving in Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung by designing questionnaire and field investigation. The persons to go there and back in Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung were chosen to be the research target, and we proceeded to design questionnaire and field investigation about the situation scenarios of the stated preference and revealed preference. In the situation of revealed preference, the mode we considered included air transportation, conventional rail, scheduled bus on national freeway and voluntarily driving. In addition to these modes, the high speed rail was added in the situation of stated preference for analyzing the market share of various modes after the high speed rail is open to vehicular traffic.

　　The results of basic statistic analysis indicated that the market share of the air transportation decreased largely after the high speed railway joins the transportation market. In terms of market share, scheduled bus on national freeway has a little less quantity than air transportation. In contrast to the condition without high speed railway, if the high speed railway joined the transportation market in the future, the average trip times of the travelers would increase, the induced demand would increase 1.14 %, and the transport capability would also expand largely. Results from Logit model analysis show that, the major factors affecting the mode choice of the travelers were profession and income. Under different models analysis, other variables included are traveler’s gender, age, educational background, and the private car number. The access and egress’s travel time of mode was one of the factors which could be considered when travelers choose the mode. The above results could be a reference for forecasting transportation demand, and they also offered information to the industry of transportation to make them adjust their service followed by various characteristics of travelers.