Transportation Dissertation
| Title | Causality Analysis of BDI with the indices of GDP, CRU, DAX and Energy |
|---|---|
| Year | 2018 |
| Degree | Master |
| School | Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science National Cheng Kung University |
| Author | Chang, Jyuan-Hua |
| Summary | The aim of the research presented in this paper is to analyse influencing factors of the Baltic Dry Index. Based on past literature research, the global real GDP growth rate, global steel index, global agribusiness index, and Brent crude are used to explore the causal relationship. The data was taken from Q1 in 2009 to Q1 in 2018. The research used the marginal co-integration through autoregressive distributed lag-ARDL and the error correction model (ECM), which analyzed the relationship of long-term and short-term between the BDI index and each variable. Finally Granger causality is used to explore the causal relationship between variables. The conclusion of this research is to establish there are a long-term relationship between the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and global real economic growth rate (GDP), global steel index (CRU), global agricultural gold index (DAX), Brent crude. The global real GDP growth rate from the first to the fourth period has a significant positive relationship with the Baltic Dry Index, confirming that the global real economic growth rate is the Baltic Dry Index impact factor. |