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Trans. Planning Journal
| Title | Analyses of Entire Tonnage Structure and its Growth Trend among ROC, PRC and HK |
|---|---|
| Author | Cheng-Chi Chung, Chia-Yang Hsu |
| Summary | According to the economic principles of supply and demand, there are many factors that can influence shipping markets and fluctuations in transportation prices. They mainly result directly from the vessel supply tonnage and the cargo source demand. Hong Kong joined WTO in 1995, and returned to China in 1997. China and Taiwan also joined WTO in 2001 and 2002 respectively. The economies of Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong will be more integrated into the global economy system; hence, interactions of economies and business between China and Taiwan will share the same basis. As a result, there must be some effects upon the shipping industries in both China and Taiwan. Most of the earlier studies only discussed certain countries’ tonnage structures; they neither performed comparative analyses of the tonnage structures between different countries or rest of the world nor provided any growth trends on the systematic quantification analysis. In this study, we used the latest ten-year statistics of UNCTAD to thoroughly analyze tonnage structures of Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong. We adopted Grey GM (1, 1) Model of Grey theory to forecast and smooth exponentials to have accurate comparisons. In respect to the supply side, we compared tonnage-structure growth trends of Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong with the global growth trend, and discussed the interval results. The Results showed that, in terms of the tonnage structure, except for Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are consistent with the global trend in the reduction of national flag vessels and the increase in foreign flag vessels. Furthermore, there is a rise in deadweight tonnage for Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong respectively. In the coming three years, the tonnage growth of Taiwan and Hong Kong will slightly increase; on the other hand, the tonnage growth of China will increase aggressively. The findings of this study will assist shipping companies in shipping management decision-making, and government agencies in formulating supportive shipping policies. |
| Vol. | 36 |
| No. | 4 |
| Page | 425 |
| Year | 2007 |
| Month | 12 |
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