Institute of Transportation, MOTC

        The central Taiwan region includes counties and cities such as Miaoli County, Taichung City, Changhua County, Nantou County, and Yunlin County. The focus of this research is on establishing a transportation demand forecasting model for the central Taiwan region and conducting future-year supply and demand forecasting analysis. The goal is to gain an in-depth understanding of supply and demand issues in the central Taiwan region, evaluate the functional positioning of various transportation systems, formulate overall transportation development strategies, and present the following research results:

1. The Central region is affected by the trend of the declining birthrate and increasing aging population in the coming years, the proportion of the population over 65 years old will increase from 16.4% of the total population in 2021 to 38.0% in 2051, an increase of about 860,000 people. The total number of trips was 11.21 million in 2021, to 9.06 million in 2051, a decrease of nearly 2.15million, or about 19.1%, and the trip rate will drop from 1.96 trips/person/day to 1.92 trips/person/day in 2051.

2. The congestion situation of cross-living circles in the Central region is more serious on Provincial Highway No. 1 in the coming years, with a demand-supply ratio ranging from 0.97 to 1.09, indicating that Provincial Highway No. 1 will still be the most important inter-city corridor in the future; as for the National Highways, the sections will higher traffic volume are National Highway No. 1 and National Highway No. 3 respectively between Taichung City and Changhua County, with the demand-supply ratios of 0.59-0.61 and 0.62-0.75, respectively.

3. In all living circles in the Central region, the demand-supply ratios of Provincial Highway No. 10, Provincial Highway No. 13, Huanzhong Road, Zhongqing Road, and Xiangshang Road of Taichung City will be higher than 1 in the coming years; followed by Provincial Highway No, 19, Changhua County Highway No. 141, and Changhua County Highway No. 146 in the living circles of Changhua County with the demand-supply ratio of higher than 1, and the congestion situation in Miaoli, Nantou, and Yunlin are relatively less significant.

4. In the future, the Development Strategy Recommendations of Land Transportation for Central region can be as follows:(1) International sea and air ports continue to strengthen the connection between ports and trunk roads and enhance the efficiency of passenger and cargo transportation ;(2) Intercity transportation system, highway system to strengthen intelligent traffic control management, public transportation system to strengthen transfer and shuttle services;(3) Cooperate the development of industrial parks, and strengthen commuter trips and shuttle services;(4) Develop the transportation environment of the aging society, manage the travel behavior of elderly passengers and continue to optimize the transportation services for the elderly;(5) In response to the development of net-zero carbon emission transportation by 2050, reflect the cost of private transportation vehicles, and strengthen the management of private transportation vehicles;(6) The development of external transport at important tourist attractions, adopting transport demand management strategies, and improving public transportation services.