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Summary of IOT Publications
| Title | The 5th Taiwan Area Comprehensive Transportation Planning Research Series - Intercity travel supply and demand forecast analysis |
|---|---|
| Dept | Transportation Planning and Land Transport Division |
| Year | 2018 |
| Month | 6 |
| Price | 660 |
| Summary | The Institute of Transportation, MOTC conducted a national intercity travel survey covering Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu in 2014 and 2015. In this survey, intercity trip characteristics on weekdays and weekends were surveyed. This year, the main project builds on the previous research outcomes to complete intercity transportation demand model (TDM2016). According to the model, we forecast transportation trend in future years and observe changes in supply and demand in the intercity main transportation system of the future. The research outcomes are summarized as follows : 1. Social and economic trends in Taiwan (1)The life circle population of Taipei, Taichung and Taoyuan will reach a new high between 2026 and 2031. Other life circle population will reach their peaks between 2021 and 2026, after which they will decline. (2)The forecast is that the average number of trips per person per year will constantly rise and the total number of number of trips in Taiwan will reach a new high in 2015, after which the figure will decline. 2. Analysis of intercity transportation supply and demand. (1) Total trips will reach a new high by 2021. Total daily trips will be is about 3.002 million and the total holiday trip is about 5.858 million. Both figures will decline after the peak. (2) Observations show the following trends in transport mode choices: passenger cars will remain above 80% , bith during weekdays, weekends,and holidays, and this percentage is highest for short trips. The percentage of highway trips will remain around 4-5%, which may increase a little in years to come before declining; this transport mode remains quite high for medium to long trips. In east Taiwan, railways have a bigger share. Domestic air routes have a small share due to significant reduction in the number of flights. Highspeed rail has a strong advantage in long-distance travel. (3) Future growth in intercity travel will be concentrated in northern Taiwan. Conduct three major policy issues and analysis “actively promote the public transport”, “Eastern Transport Improvement”, “Oil prices fluctuate for intercity transport influence” and other policy for intercity transportation influence. 4. Complete intercity transportation demand model (TDM2016). |
| Post date | 2019-06-17 |
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