Institute of Transportation, MOTC

　　The study aims to establish a railway over-booking yield management model. A binary function is utilized to formulate a high-speed railway formula consisting of benefit, compensation and discount cost. By focusing on the ran-dom distribution of high-speed railway passenger’s arrivals and absences, the Monte Carlo method is applied to compute random variables and calculate 1,000 random variations of the HSR over-booking model. Outcome of calcula-tions is normally distributed and the effects of over-booking on railways are analyzed. Sensitivity analysis on different models is conducted to identify the best overbooking strategy and optimal coach distribution of reserved seats and unreserved seats. Results assume a 10%-20% no-show rate while the most rea-sonable no-show rate is 5%, which closely represents that of the high-speed railway. The optimal coach distribution of reserved seats and unreserved seats is 8:3 when the no-show rate is less than 10%. When the no-show rate is be-tween 10%~20%, the best care distribution is 10:1.