Institute of Transportation, MOTC

　　This paper develops a decision support system for estimating total energy consumption and emissions of cars and motorcycles under various management strategies. The system contains three key components: Modelbase, Database and User interface. The Modelbase, the core of this system, entails a total of 24 disaggregate choice models, including nationwide and regional ownership, type and vintage choice and usage models of cars and motorcycles, while the Database contains the values of the significant variables for various cities/counties and coefficients of energy consumption and emissions for various type and vintage categories of cars and motorcycles. The User interface is programmed by Flash MX. To validate the applicability of the system, two management strategies are analyzed: 50% increase in gas price and mile-based fuel costs. With a 50% increase in gas price, the total miles traveled, energy consumption and CO2 emissions are curtailed only by approximately 9.60~13.35% and emissions of NOx, CO and HC are curtailed at even lower ratios (about 5~6%) due to the high substitution effect between car usage and motorcycle usage and low gas price elasticity of motorcycle usage. As to the strategy of mile-based fuel costs, only 1.27% ~2.95% reductions in energy consumption and emissions are achieved.