Institute of Transportation, MOTC

　　In this paper we adapt the X11 seasonal analysis, Hedrick-Prescott filter and Granger causality to examine the seasonality, cycle and trend of the international dry bulk market, based on freight rate, new ship, secondhand ship, and demolition prices. After our examination and analysis we found that the freight shipping market had the most volatility, when compared to others. However, the new shipping market had the lightest volatility by X11 seasonal analysis. The period of cycle began to shortened and fluctuating volatility according to the Hedrick-Prescott filter analysis of the bulk shipping market. Moreover, we found that the freight rate market is the leading indicator of the four sub-markets, by a Granger test. In this paper we suggest the ship-owner to create a strategy for long term time-charters or decrease the fleet number by following the shipping freight market cycle downward at the end of 2007.