| Title | Development and Application of Models for Forecasting Flight Frequencies in Air Routes |
| Year | 2018 |
| Degree | Master |
| School | Institute of Traffic and Transportion National Chiao Tung University |
| Author | |
| Summary | In recent years, air passenger market in Asia and the Middle East have growing rapidly. It is important for airline and airport operaters to find potential markets to develop new air routes or increase flight frequencies in existing route. However, these issues are lack of comprehensive researches. Thus, this study aims to explore the factors affecting direct connections and direct flights, and build an econometric model to apply to the development of potential markets. Using Innovata 2016 flightdata and collected appropriate variables, Zero-inflated Negative Binomial Regression model was established. The results showed that departure country use the same language/have strong colonial links with arrival country, international passenger traffic at the airport, the competitiveness index of the country where the airport is located, fleet sizes of aiport-based airlines, passengers from departure country do not require a visa to visit arrival country in regional route, the primary airport in multi-airport area, low cost carriers operate in the route, and code-sharing flights rate have positive and significant influence on direct flights. In contrast, the number of airports adjacent to the airport in the multi-airport area and the number of hub airports have negative and significant effects. In general, the model explained 84.99% of the sample, it means that the model could be applied in the development of potential market. Airlines and airport authorities may consider their own operating conditions and characteristics of destination for subsequent application. |
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