| Title | Forecasting of International Cargo volumes and Contagion Effect due to Major Disasters |
| Year | 2016 |
| Degree | Master |
| School | Chiao Tung University |
| Author | Yu-Che Huang |
| Summary | This study aims to develop an approach for the forecasting of cargo volumes which changes rapidly due to interactions and competitions between industries and/or countries. Two models are proposed and demonstrated with case studies. In the first part, we propose a hybrid forecasting model to capture industry shares of cargo import and export between countries changing over time and quickly responsive to the dynamic changes in the industry. The proposed Grey hybrid model is based on Grey forecasting model and Grey residual modifications with Markov-chain sign estimations, together with an industry share transformation technique. The model is used to predict cargo volumes between Taiwan and North American by different industries. |
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