Institute of Transportation, MOTC

Title	Series of the Fifth Taiwan Area Comprehensive Transportation Planning Research - Study to Review the Intercity Transportation System Demand Model, as well as Update the Parameters (2/3)
Dept	Transportation Planning and Land Transport Division
Year	2013
Month
Price
Summary	The Institute of Transportation (IOT) is the think tank of the Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC). Its job is to support the MOTC for conducting the planning of traffic blueprint, which has become more and more serious with the change in international and domestic trends such as global warming, energy conservation and carbon reduction, public transportation, population aging and low birth rate. In order to quickly respond to those trends and effectively support the MOTC, the job has to be done on a long-term basis and in a sustainable manner. With respect to the planning of traffic blueprint, research on the “Phases 1, 2, 3, and 4 of Overall Transporation Planning in Taiwan” had been carried out in 1976, 1986, 1999 and 2009, respectively, which completed different periods of planning of traffic blueprint in Taiwan. 　　This study is a long-term study. Every five years, it conducts rolling prediction on the transportation demands of Taiwan 20 years from the time of the prediction. Considering that the global economic environment has changed rapidly recently, the 1-day transportation living circle built by the operation of Taiwan High Speed Rail and the completion of the freeway network in the nation can enormously enhance the mobility and accessibility of the public. The abovementioned change in the social and economic development trends and transportation demands will affect the society and economy as well as the various parameters of the models, the relationship between different models and the overall interpretation capability of the models. Thus, long-term parameter review and updating need to be conducted to enhance the prediction capability of the models in the future. Since 2009 the Phase 5 of the demand model of intercity transportation and overall transportation planning has been conducted. Verification and examination has been conducted on a long-term basis through annual data collection, as well as update and review of the rolling type model every five years, to discuss and modify the demand model in a timely manner, in order to facilitate the analysis conducted by the government on the profit and effects of the investment in traffic infrastructure. 　　This study is a three-year plan and attempts to conduct discussion about and amend the 4 phases of models based on the preparatory studies performed between 2009-2010 and the year 1 research. This year (2013) is year 2 for the research and the main findings include: (1). review of the probable error of the prediction on the 4 phases of intercity passenger transportation models; (2). forecasting the social and economic development and building a model that relates land use to transportation demands; (3). modifying the intercity passenger transportation demands, including a re-calibration and re-evaluation of different models; (4). estimating trips in conjunction with non-intercity passenger transportation; (5). estimating special trips, including international airport bus and tour bus routes; (6). investigating container trip characteristics to establish a freight origin-destination matrix; (7). building a demand model of freight transportation and conducting prediction; the estimation modules include a national freight transport module, an international freight transport module and an un-loaded truck module; (8). adjusting the estimation modules for power consumption and emission, as well as updating relevant parameters. The achievements of this year will be used to enhance the prediction capability of Phase 5 model, in order to facilitate analysis of prediction on subsequent intercity transportation demands. 　　The findings of this study can provide a basis for National Council for Sustainable Development Network of the Executive Yuan, the MOTC and the IOT to review relevant construction projects proposed by agencies of the MOTC and various city/county governments. They can also be applied to research relating to overall transportation planning conducted by the IOT and other domestic transportation planning agencies.
Post date	2013/05/30
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