| Title | A Series of Studies on the Overall Transportation Planning of Eastern Taiwan (2/3)- Intercity Travel Supply and Demand Forecast Analysis |
| Dept | Transportation Planning and Land Transport Division |
| Summary | The series of studies on regional transportation planning for Taiwan started in 2016, and the project of eastern Taiwan is conducted from 2022 to 2024. The eastern Taiwan region comprises three counties, which are Yilan County, Hualien County, and Taitung County, and the series of studies last for 3 years to investigate and analysis of travel characteristics, forecast the demand and supply, and propose developing strategies in order. This year's (2023) focus is on establishing the "2023 Eastern Taiwan Transportation Demand Model" using 2022 survey results and supply-demand forecasts to inform future strategies. Key findings include: 1. Future Socioeconomic Trends (1) Population and proportion in Eastern Taiwan are expected to decline from 4.3% in 2022 to 3.5% in 2051. (2) Aging population: those 65+ will rise to 36.3%. (3) Secondary and tertiary sector employment will decline slightly, while tertiary sector proportion increases. (4) Household income is projected to grow by 0.95%, personal income by 1.2%; car ownership by 0.32%, and motorcycle ownership by 0.09%. 2. Trip Generation Trends (1) Weekday trips are expected to decrease by about 260,000 (6.8%), and holiday trips by about 350,000 (8.9%) from 2022 to 2051. (2) Taitung will see the largest trip decline: 23.0% on weekdays, 28.2% on holidays. 3. Trip Distribution Trends (1) Yilan: trips are centered in Yilan and Luodong, with similar patterns on weekdays and holidays. (2) Hualien: trips are concentrated in northern Hualien, with more north-south travel on holidays. (3) Taitung: trips are mostly within urban areas, increasingly concentrated in Taitung City. 4. Transportation Mode Trends (1) Cars are the primary mode for inter-living circle trips on both weekdays and holidays. (2) Within living circles, car use will increase while motorcycle use will decrease. By 2035, car use in Taitung will surpass motorcycles. 5. Traffic Volume Trends (1) Overall traffic volume will decline due to population decrease, except for slight increases in tourist areas like Taroko. (2) Trips on Taiwan Railways and buses will also decline. 6. Supply and Demand Analysis (1) Highway No. 5 and main urban roads will remain congested, but overall service levels will be good, with a north-to-south decreasing trend in supply-demand ratio. (2) Taiwan Railways' peak hour supply-demand ratio is highest between Yilan and Hualien on weekdays (0.65). On holidays, Taipei-Yilan and Yilan-Hualien ratios exceed 0.6. (3) Bus service peak hour demand is highest between Taipei and Yilan, exceeding supply during holiday peaks, necessitating additional services. |
| Post date | 2025/05/31 |
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