| Title | The Analysis on Energy Consumption and Future Demand for Transport Sector |
| Dept | Transportation Energy and Environment Division |
| Year | 2016 |
| Month | 9 |
| Price | |
| Summary | To mitigate the environmental impacts of fossil energy, the transport sector are positively promoting public transport, constructing rail transport network, and encouraging the use of electric driving vehicles. As the preceding policies continue push forward, the transport sector energy consumption trend and demand are transformed. The electricity demand is increasing, and the dependence for fossil fuel is gradually reducing. To evaluate the midterm and long-term energy on transport consumption trend and needs, constructing energy consumption growth and demand models for transport sector is very critical. To coordinate with the series of "Climate Change Policy Decision Support System for the Transportation Sector" studies, the research re-estimates the Seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) for Rail, Highway, Maritime and Aviation energy needs, to enhance the linkage between explanatory variables and the dependent variables. Therefore, the revised models improve the applicability in policy making. In the current study, the Multivariate Autoregressive Moving Average Models, (MARMA) are developed to depict transport sector energy demands. Additionally, the research collected better representative variables, to strengthen the precision of proposed energy demand model. Meanwhile, establishing multivariate regression models captures the energy consumption trends for transport sector. The multivariate regression models analysis the recent transport energy consumption trends. The proposed two methods increase the prediction and policy evaluation capability. Lastly, the study demonstrated the future energy consumption scenarios for transport sector from preceding findings. Additionally, the study also showed the influence factors on transport energy demand. |
| Post date | 2016/09/13 |
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