Title Analyzing the Reliability Analysis Model for the Stochastic Knock-on Delays of Taiwan Railways Administration System
Dept Transportation Planning and Land Transport Division
Year 2013
Month
Price
Summary Based on the stochastic features concerning the key factors influencing knock-on delays, this project endeavored to correctly reflect the knock on delays that are produced by the initial delays of Taiwan Railways Administration (TRA) trains and investigate schedule stability issues that are caused by knock-on delays. To achieve these goals, the Cidu-Hsinchu section of the TRA was selected as the research site to analyze stochastic features of between-station and in-station operation times. In addition to collecting data concerning the between-station operational times of express and commuter trains, the in-station stochastic data for these trains were also categorized according to peak and off-peak periods and analyzed. A comprehensive simulation model was developed and employed to process and evaluate the knock-on delays. The results suggest that the knock-on delays at all stations and two end stations during peak and off-peak hours converged to constant values. Therefore, this research concludes that the framework and the simulation model proposed in this research may be helpful for identifying the key factors affecting knock-on delays, but also the degree of delay impact. The results are also beneficial for timetable scheduling, analyzing system reliability, and improving service quality.

　　Based on the results concerning the tolerated number of trains between stations and their sensitivity towards knock-on delays, increasing the tolerated number of trains between stations from 1 to 2 demonstrated the greatest reduction in overall delay times; that is, the greatest increase in system reliability. These results were consequently based on the route capacity and sensitivity results of between-station block sections and in-station track configuration conditions of all railway sections. Furthermore, this project performed an additional double-delay test to analyze the impact of initial delays on knock-on delays. In this test, the knock-on delay of Nangang Train Station was observed. This test assumed that the first initial delay event (duration=1h) occurred along the Songshan–Taipei section on the southbound track at 7:10 a.m. When the second initial delay event occurred in an appropriate interval to the first event, the impact of the knock-on delay generates an interactive effect linking the two events. When the time of the second initial delay event (i.e., dual-peak) reaches 1.4 h, the dual peaks converge into a single peak with a higher extreme. These results suggest the influence of the second initial delay was even amplified and significantly impacted the reliability of the system.
Post date 2013/09/06
Hashtags
View count: 139