Institute of Transportation, MOTC

Title	Capacity and Reliability Analysis of Rail Transportation Systems (3/3)
Dept	Transportation Planning and Land Transport Division
Year	2013
Month
Price
Summary	The construction of railway systems requires enormous capital expenditure. As a result, systematic analysis on capacity and research on reliability are essential in providing transportation capacity that meets expected service quality in a cost-effective manner. In the past, the Institute of Transportation (IOT) developed models to analyze rail capacity and reliability of single sections of conventional railway systems. However, these models did not consider the influence of adjacent sections. Thus, the objective of this research project, “Capacity and Reliability Analysis of Rail Transportation Systems”, is to investigate rail capacity for continuous sections of track and develop models for reliability analysis. 　　The model for analyzing continuous rail sections can be regarded as an extension of the previously developed model for single rail sections. Based on train scheduling practices, this study develops an event stacking mechanism to understand train interferences and track congestion to accurately evaluate the capacity of continuous rail sections. This mechanism can be applied to evaluation on the capacity performance of overall routes. In regard to the research on reliability analysis, this study uses time-space diagrams to illustrate potential train delays and applies the concept of risk management to evaluate the risk of these delays. This study employs Monte-Carlo simulations to develop a reliability analysis model, which considers train density, causes of traffic, travel time, resting periods, and headway signals. The model stimulates different situations to evaluate possible train delays. 　　To promote the achievements of this research, improve the efficiency of train capacity, as well as of reliability analyses, the IOT also developed software for analyzing rail capacity for continuous sections and conducts education and training. These research accomplishments were compiled into the “Taiwan Railway Capacity Manual”, which can be used for capacity analysis, education, and supporting railway project policy decisions. This research will be useful for railway industries, the government, universities and research institutes. We suggest that this research on rail capacity be continued so as to further improve the technology and increase understanding of rail capacity analysis in Taiwan.
Post date	2013/07/10
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