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Trans. Planning Journal
| Title | An Application of Grey Theory to Global Trade Prediction by Port Container hroughputs |
|---|---|
| Author | Hua-An Lu, Shiou-Yu Chen and Yu-Chin Yu |
| Summary | International trade growth is one major sign in the development of global economies. By analyzing port container traffic, this study attempts to construct prediction models of yearly global export trade value with grey theory. First, candidates among leading ports were selected using grey relational analysis: Bremen, Ningbo, Singapore and Tianjin ports were picked as each had higher grey correlations with global export trade value. Second, a GM (1. 5) model was projected in order to forecast trade values by analyzing container throughputs of these four ports. Results reveal that this model has well-forecast abilities with 97.97% of mean absolute percent error and almost zero of Theil’s U statistics. It was also better than that of GM (1.1). |
| Vol. | 41 |
| No. | 2 |
| Page | 113 |
| Year | 2012 |
| Month | 6 |
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