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Institute of Transportation, MOTC

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Construction and Application of the International Container Shipping Network Model

  • Date:2019-03-06
  • Update:2019-03-06
  • Department:IOT

Project Overview:

  Marine transportation is a global competitive market. In the past, when determining the impact of global marine transportation changes on Taiwan’s ports, trends were mostly determined through expert interviews or data analysis. This project constructed an international shipping network model to present future potential development scenarios of marine transportation with the method of quantification through analysis by the model. This project is based on a previously developed navigation network model., to enhance the completeness of the marine transportation network covered by the model. Expanded from the original coverage area of the Asia-Pacific it now covers the global route network, and includes considerations of route and vessel positions as well as economies of scale. The navigation network model is to present the international ports and routes with nodes and nodal line, as well as the transshipment activities of the containers in the port between different routes, can be used for scenario analysis and assist in determination of marine transportation trends.

Research outcomes:

  • Conducted various scenario analysis outcomes through the international marine transportation network model so that marine transportation trend forecasts in the previous biased-qualitative determination can be quantified. The outcomes of this project are summarized as follows:
    • Port Tariff Discount: The model solution results show that if the transshipment cost of Port of Kaohsiung is reduced to 0, the number of routes for Kaohsiung Port of call will increase by about 30%. However, there are still many intangible costs, such as the political restrictions imposed on Taiwan, which is an important indirect cost for ocean carriers that cannot be reflected in the port tariffs.
    • Growth of ASEAN countries: The model solution results show that if the transportation volume of ASEAN countries grows by 20%, the number of routes for Port of Kaohsiung will increase by about 12%, but the eastbound US East Coast route will no longer call at Kaohsiung Port, and will marginalize the service area of the westbound US East Coast route at the same time. If the transportation volume of ASEAN countries grows by 50%, then the number of routes for Port of Kaohsiung will be reduced to the same as the basic scenario, but the eastbound US East Coast route will not call at Port of Kaohsiung. At the same time, the westbound US East Coast route will be extended; if the transportation volume of ASEAN countries grows by 100%, then the number of routes for Port of Kaohsiung will grow by about 41%, but if the ASEAN countries expand their ports at the same time, the number of routes for the Port of Kaohsiung will decline sharply (from +41% down to +20%). At present, Taiwan’s port facilities are still better than those of the Southeast Asian ports, including capabilities for handling large ships, however, if the ASEAN countries improve their port facilities and operational capabilities in the future, the impact to Taiwan may be greater. It is recommended that the Taiwan International Ports Corporation and other units plan and prepare in advance.

Promotion of Outcomes and Benefits :

  • This project established the International Marine Transportation Network Model from a macroscopic point of view, and provided the analysis tools for container marine transportation changes from a global perspective. The promotion of the research outcomes and benefits are as follows:
    • An outcomes paper titled "International Container Marine Transportation Network Model with Allowance of Incomplete Information" was submitted to the Quarterly Journal of Transportation Planning in December 2017 with the to provide reference for all sectors.
    • Summarized the important content of this project to be included in the “2017 Important Issues on Marine and Air Transportation” and reported to the Ministry of Transportation and Communications in April 2018.
    • The research reports of this project were delivered to the Maritime and Port Bureau of the Ministry of Transportation and Communications and the Taiwan International Ports Corporation by mail for their references in May 2018.
    • The outcomes of this project were also presented in marine transportation related project reviews and opinion proposals organized by this Institute, including:

I. In December 2017 and January 2019, this Institute submitted a revised "Analysis Report for the Recent Global Shipping Alliance Reorganization and International Shipping Development Situation" to the Taiwan International Ports Corporation for study and comments.
II. In March 2018, this Institute provided information on the " Countermeasures to Maintain the Multi- Million TEU Large Port Status for the Port of Kaohsiung" planned by Taiwan International Ports Corporation, and the Corporation requested this Institute in writing to provide further data on possible factors behind the slowing growth of container volume (import/export and transshipment) for the Port of Kaohsiung and potential responses.
Summary of Key Research Outcomes :

Route Map of Kaohsiung Port Far East Area with Transportation Volume Growth of 100% for the ASEAN 10 Countries

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