Study on the Operation Strategies and Future Development of Harbors in Taiwan through International Transportation Network Model
The maritime transportation resembles the global competition market. When judging the impact of changes in global maritime transportation to the harbors in Taiwan previously, it was mostly conducted by means of expert interviews or data analysis for judging the trend. In this Plan, the international maritime transportation network model will be implemented to present the impact of potential development scenarios in future maritime transportation through quantitative method. Example:
- Impact to maritime transportation after widening the Panama Canal. After the model analysis for the Panama Canal widened in 2016, it indicates that 19% of growth will be seen in the shipping capacity from east of Panama Canal to the east-coast line of America; however, 25% will be reduced for the west-coast line and its market share will also be changed. After being widened, the canal will only accommodate bigger ships to reduce the unit transportation cost but will also provide more competitive advantages through composite transportation mode (+ land bridge) for the canal mode.
- Impact of increased ASEAN shipping capacity to Kaohsiung Harbor Whether the China’s “One-belt-one-road” policy of the new southbound policy currently promoted by the government in Taiwan, both are focusing on the development potential in the SE Asia area. The SE Asia area has been the important transshipment market for the harbors in Taiwan. The result of model analysis indicated that when the shipping capacity of ASEAN increased for 20%, the transshipping capacity of Kaohshiung Harbor will also increase by 6%. On the contrary, when the ASEAN shipping capacity increased for 50%, the transshipping capacity of Kaohsiung Harbor will be reduced by 6%; by the same token, if the ASEAN shipping capacity increased for 200%, the transshipping capacity of Kaohsiung Harbor will reduce for 59% instead. It indicated that when the ASEAN shipping capacity slightly increases, that it will help elevate the transshipping capacity of Kaohsiung Harbor. When the ASEAN experiences dramatic increase in its shipping capacity, because new maritime line can be developed for realizing direct transportation without going through transshipment and cargo consolidation through the neighboring harbor, it will prevent the elevation of transshipping capacity through Kaohsiung Harbor.
Promotion of result：
The research result of this Plan has been included in “Key Issues for Maritime & Aviation Transportation in 2016” for reporting to Ministry of Transportation & Communications (MOTC).
The research result has been published in Edition 3 in Vol. 43 of Transportation Plan Journal and was announced in “2017 Annual Session & Scholastic Thesis Seminar” convened by R.O.C. Transportation Society.
|Scenarios||Transshipping capacity fluctuation rate in Kaohsiung Harbor|
|When ASEAN shipping capacity increased for 20%||+6%|
|When ASEAN shipping capacity increased for 50%||-6%|
|When ASEAN shipping capacity increased for 200%||-59%|